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加密社区正在关注三个宏观事件,以期扭转加密领域局势

明明 2023-05-09 6

加密社区正在关注三个关键日期,这些日期可能深刻影响加密市场的轨迹和今年更广泛的美国宏观经济环境。

7月13日,月度消费物价指数(CPI)和通胀相关数据将向公众公布。7月26日至27日将决定是否进一步加息,而7月28日,美国2022年第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)估计值将告诉我们该国是否处于技术性衰退。

7月13日:通胀指标,CPI

加密咨询和教育平台EightGlobal的首席执行官兼创始人Micahel van de Poppe在7月4日告诉他的614,300名推特粉丝,“所有人都在关注下周的CPI数据”,并补充说,如果比特币价格反弹至2万美元上方,那么预测它会上涨。

推特名为“Wolves of Crypto”的The Crypto Academy联合创始人告诉他的粉丝们要关注这个日期,并补充说,CPI低于预期“可能是比特币死猫反弹的催化剂”。

“所有人都在关注7月13日的CPI数据。如果CPI下降,这将成为死猫反弹的催化剂。”

加密社区正在关注三个宏观事件,以期扭转加密领域局势

CPI是衡量通胀进程的基准之一,通过衡量基于一篮子具有代表性的家用商品和服务的消费者价格的平均变化。

持续上升的通胀可能会影响对加密货币的需求,因为消费者需要花费比以前更多的钱来度日。

有趣的是,尽管比特币诞生于2008年全球金融危机后的高通胀时期,并因其固定供应和稀缺性而被誉为通胀对冲工具,但近年来,这一加密货币的表现与传统科技股一致,不那么能抵御通胀。

下一份CPI数据预计将于2022年7月13日由美国劳工统计局发布。

Trading Economics的数据显示,目前市场对6月份通胀率(或CPI)的共同预测为8.7%,略高于5月份的8.6%。

7月26-27日:美联储加息

6月份加息75个基点是28年来最大幅度的月度加息之一,在这之后,预计在本月晚些时候的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后,利率将进一步上调。

加息是美联储通过减缓经济增长来控制通货膨胀的主要手段之一。利率上调会导致借贷成本上升,从而抑制消费者和企业的支出和贷款。

它还可能给加密货币等高风险资产价格带来下行压力,因为投资者只需将资金投入有息账户或低风险资产,就可以开始获得可观的回报。

本月,预计FOMC将决定加息50还是75个基点。Compound Capital Advisors创始人兼首席执行官Charlie Bilello预测加息75个基点。

7月28日:美国将陷入衰退吗?

7月28日,美国经济分析局(BEA)将发布美国2022年第二季度GDP预估。

在2022年第一季度GDP下降1.6%之后,亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow跟踪器预计2022年第二季度GDP增长将下降2.1%。

如果GDP连续第二个季度下降,美国将陷入“技术性衰退”。

如果美国经济被正式贴上衰退的标签(预计将于2023年开始),比特币将面临有史以来第一次全面衰退,并可能与科技股一起持续下跌。

一线希望?

尽管宏观预测前景黯淡,但一些加密专家认为,近期由宏观因素引发的加密市场崩盘对该行业来说总体上是一个积极的迹象。

Coinapult联合创始人、ShapeShift首席执行官兼创始人、加密专家Erik Voorhees表示,对他来说,当前的加密货币崩盘是“最不令人担忧”的,因为这是第一次由加密领域以外的宏观因素导致的崩盘。

Alliance DAO核心贡献者Qiao Wang也对他的13.12万名粉丝发表了类似的评论,他指出,这是第一个主要看跌因素是“外生因素”的周期。

“那些因为宏观因素而对加密货币感到担忧的人意识到这是多么的看涨,对吗?”

“这是第一个主要看跌因素是外生因素的周期。以前周期都是内生因素造成的,例如Mt.Gox破产(2014年)和ICO(2018年),”他解释道。



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    -10.23%
  • AGIX
    AGIX
    4.479491
    $0.614100
    -9.96%
  • OSMO
    OSMO
    3.200053
    $0.438700
    -10.47%
  • BONK
    BONK
    0.000226
    $0.000031
    -10.77%
  • ROSE
    ROSE
    0.585230
    $0.080230
    -10.23%
  • AXL
    AXL
    5.424116
    $0.743600
    -7.35%
  • AVAV
    AVAV
    0.000000
    $0.000000
    +0.00%
  • ALT
    ALT
    0.849287
    $0.116430
    -12.64%
  • PIXEL
    PIXEL
    1.161268
    $0.159200
    -12.20%
  • JUP
    JUP
    5.961713
    $0.817300
    -11.42%
  • JTO
    JTO
    21.467419
    $2.943000
    -9.83%
  • MANTA
    MANTA
    6.280478
    $0.861000
    -9.84%
  • XAI
    XAI
    1.688654
    $0.231500
    -11.05%
  • PORTAL
    PORTAL
    2.222604
    $0.304700
    -13.30%
  • WLD
    WLD
    16.171685
    $2.217000
    -10.34%
  • ARKM
    ARKM
    10.606058
    $1.454000
    -10.05%
  • PENDLE
    PENDLE
    36.676243
    $5.028000
    -8.78%
  • LOKA
    LOKA
    1.545683
    $0.211900
    -10.91%
  • SUI
    SUI
    32.494364
    $4.454700
    -8.97%
  • MAV
    MAV
    1.418761
    $0.194500
    -10.36%
  • APT
    APT
    68.567360
    $9.400000
    -16.28%
  • RDNT
    RDNT
    0.409945
    $0.056200
    -10.64%
  • HFT
    HFT
    1.477116
    $0.202500
    -8.37%
  • GAL
    GAL
    18.542365
    $2.542000
    -8.90%
  • ANC
    ANC
    0.229847
    $0.031510
    -7.55%
  • HIGH
    HIGH
    10.460170
    $1.434000
    -10.58%
  • MC
    MC
    3.545808
    $0.486100
    -4.43%
  • PEPE
    PEPE
    0.000127
    $0.000017
    -8.18%
  • BICO
    BICO
    2.032220
    $0.278600
    -9.49%
  • BB
    BB
    2.613584
    $0.358300
    -12.59%
  • TRB
    TRB
    437.080448
    $59.920000
    -6.97%
  • AEVO
    AEVO
    2.612125
    $0.358100
    -10.75%
  • PONKE
    PONKE
    2.470710
    $0.338713
    -8.95%
  • TON
    TON
    38.820797
    $5.322000
    -5.58%
  • IOTA
    IOTA
    2.097140
    $0.287500
    +0.00%

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